ECOWAS under the leadership of Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu yesterday approved the use of ECOWAS standby force to restore democratic governance in the Republic of Niger that was recently toppled by military government. Prior to the invasion approval, political, legal and military scholars have pushed out several thoughts on the ensuing issue.
No doubt, a military government in Niger poses a great threat to Nigerian democracy coming against the backdrop that Mali and Burkina Faso are under military grip. The administration of President Muhammadu Buhari invested substantially in Niger making it easier for goods and humans to transact and transit between Nigeria and Nigeria. An unchallenged, unencumbered military government in Niger will make the country a safe haven to plan and destabilize Nigeria. A safe haven to deploy arms and ammunition to non state actors such as Boko Haram and other insurgent groups in Nigeria. A safe haven to move hard drugs and other substances into Nigeria. A safe haven to plot a coup d'etat against democracy in Nigeria.
A coup d'etat in contemporary Nigerian society will snowball into civil war that will mark the end of Nigeria. The military top brass currently is dominated by one section of the country - the Hausa/Fulani, thus the mantle of leadership in a possible military era will fall on them. Will other regions and tribes in Nigeria accept this hook, line and sinker? I can't imagine the people of Delta State in the light of present day reality welcoming and accepting one Yusuf Muktah as Military Administrator. The same applies to the East and West regions of the country. The consequences are dire for the country.
The foregoing notwithstanding, the PBAT administration may be making a costly mistake in invading Niger without carefully x-raying war theories as propounded by ancient war strategists. Sun Tzu in Arts of War states that before going into a war, the leader must be conscious of his home as well as home.of those he's to engage in a war with. The Nigerien people seem to welcome and favor military regime in their country. It's arguable that their acceptance of the military junta may not be unconnected to the Stockholm Syndrome, however, how have the people fared under democratic government? Life in Nigeria today is unbearable that some are calling for the military to takeover. Many are no longer comfortable with political leaders recycling themselves and their offspring in political leadership.
ECOWAS standby troop will have a problem routing out the military junta if the Nigerien people are in total support of the military government. They will be sympathetic to the military administration and end up engaging in gorilla warfare against the troop. In the process, ECOWAS will get stuck in an unfinished war.
Over 70% of the cost to prosecute the invasion in Niger will be borne by Big Brother Nigeria - a country that is still battling with Boko Haram and other forms of internal insurrection; a country whose Per Capital Income is not up to a Dollar; a country where working class can't afford working glass; a country with the highest rate of poverty, unemployment; a country where the cost of foodstuff and medical is on per hour increase; a country where those in tertiary institutions are dropping out due to high cost of tuition fees; a country where youths resort to intake of drugs and other abusive substances due to frustration.
In conclusion, if we marry the domestic situation in Niger with the domestic situation in Nigeria with particular reference to Sun Tzu war strategy, PBAT will sooner or later find himself entangled in two great wars. Dollar is on a daily rise; price of petrol will soon be increased as marketers have announced a possible increase in cooking gas with effect from next week. Truly, we have an interesting time ahead.
Sagboje Onoriode Clinton
The Political Prophet
Oghara, Delta State, Nigeria.